Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc43a0e1f2b236c98e7103b822b95cd2ca478b4a47bdd79abd54bdb66ab19155

Rebuilt 20 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $135,858
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,858 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	19,428$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	10,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,109$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	1c	5,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.97	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	4,423$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.84	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4595…6dddbacked Yes	0c	3,198$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	4c	2,640$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.66	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	2,500$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	2c	2,500$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.76	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,434$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.83	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	2,427$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.99	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	1c	2,352$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.09	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	2c	2,344$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.71	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,001$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.14	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	2c	1,889$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.56	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	1,747$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.57	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	1,122$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	1,050$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	4c	889.32$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.13	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	793.03$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.84	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	4c	760$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb38f…23ddbacked Yes	3c	755.97$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	2c	719.72$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	672.72$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	668.57$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	3c	650.09$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	650$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	3c	608.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	2c	599.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.25	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	2c	571.07$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	4c	512.73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	3c	500.31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.33	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	400$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2800…c9d2backed Yes	5c	375.79$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	3c	326.31$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event