NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b5c8b4ce69ccb5e53e75204f1ea3bf302e146f20fe0b7af06d87f6a4f28ceac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $260,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $260,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 85,442$42,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,101.46 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6211…b89ebacked Over | 51c | 72,877$37,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,712.4 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 50c | 51,457$25,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,743.34 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Over | 52c | 42,028$21,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,303.04 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 49c | 22,065$10,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,911.98 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 50c | 19,831$9,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,915.27 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Under | 48c | 18,778$9,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,013.44 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 51c | 18,603$9,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,131.65 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Under | 50c | 15,594$7,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,797 | 292 | 45.5%133 W · 159 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56d…2b65backed Over | 54c | 13,045$7,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,034.8 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 11,300$5,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,306.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 50c | 9,306$4,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,653.24 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 9,118$4,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,465.16 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Over | 54c | 7,407$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,407.41 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 51c | 6,283$3,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,106.16 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Over | 49c | 4,962$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530.57 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Under | 47c | 4,760$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248.2 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Under | 51c | 4,502$2,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,296 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Under | 51c | 2,913$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.36 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 51c | 2,909$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.36 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Over | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.62 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 47c | 1,985$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.95 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…355abacked Under | 46c | 1,663$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.07 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Over | 50c | 1,653$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.46 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 1,608$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.96 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 1,212$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 1,007$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.72 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.4 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 49c | 1,000$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Under | 47c | 954.54$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.63 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 49c | 598.07$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.7 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 49c | 532.65$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 45c | 525$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.25 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 50c | 511.3$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.15 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 51c | 473.19$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.09 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Under | 51c | 441$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.39 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…575fbacked Under | 49c | 410.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Under | 49c | 220.65$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…19bbbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Under | 54c | 175$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Under | 51c | 165.27$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 158$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc2…dd84backed Under | 51c | 139.12$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…56fabacked Under | 50c | 132$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…8d40backed Under | 49c | 128.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 116.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 46c | 107.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…778dbacked Over | 52c | 106.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Under | 51c | 104.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ce…9a42backed Under | 49c | 97.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Over | 54c | 95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 51c | 89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Under | 49c | 85.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 50c | 77.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…c4aebacked Under | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985e…6894backed Over | 50c | 67.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Over | 51c | 62.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0250…278ebacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Under | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…0f44backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 50c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…1440backed Under | 48c | 29.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…7e7cbacked Under | 51c | 26.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Under | 50c | 22.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…cba8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 55c | 18.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1665…cff5backed Under | 66c | 18.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5this page
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Thunder vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.