NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50279bcf72d9cbbb6f917b6de1935a9dc0bb1f9e239f2a5e4a22a8e24a9f3567
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Over | 50c | 14,999$7,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,429.02 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 51c | 13,472$6,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,851.93 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 11,834$5,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,983.6 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 50c | 11,571$5,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,785.6 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 47c | 7,344$3,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,892.09 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Under | 53c | 4,113$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,179.84 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a43…565fbacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 3,551$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,793.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…53a9backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 51c | 2,864$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.71 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 2,504$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.86 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 49c | 1,898$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.96 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…355abacked Under | 48c | 1,881$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.56 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 48c | 1,428$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.76 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Under | 52c | 963.61$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.08 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 51c | 784.57$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 47c | 714$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.58 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 51c | 537$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.87 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 515$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.06 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 416.75$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.65 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x922e…7d04backed Over | 50c | 403$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 48c | 353.61$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.15 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 49c | 240.38$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 238.32$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.59 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 49c | 204.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…0b85backed Under | 49c | 203.06$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -15.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 195.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 54c | 184.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 47c | 180$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 57c | 171$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.62 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Over | 52c | 167.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2e…44c3backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 49c | 121.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 121.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 49c | 119.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 53c | 118.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 51c | 117.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 78.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…340fbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 51c | 59.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 51c | 57.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Under | 41c | 57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Over | 49c | 56.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Over | 53c | 50.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 68c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0250…278ebacked Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 38.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…6633backed Under | 38c | 36.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…b669backed Under | 44c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Over | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 50c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…9b14backed Under | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…f519backed Over | 51c | 25.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 47c | 25.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…5c6cbacked Under | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe178…e480backed Under | 51c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5this page
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Thunder vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.