NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ac425d2e8aabeb846410410b441bb2c02e4ccaa60ee45b005b125a25ee4e8eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 53c | 12,257$6,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,496.45 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 7,997$3,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,267.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 4,845$2,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300.99 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 52c | 3,860$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.07 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Under | 53c | 3,553$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.19 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…f0afbacked Over | 47c | 3,553$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,883.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 47c | 2,489$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.36 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Over | 48c | 1,727$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.08 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 47c | 1,494$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.63 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under | 57c | 1,384$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 54c | 1,080$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.43 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 46c | 1,080$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.43 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 57c | 900$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 871.55$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.78 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 753$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.56 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…b386backed Over | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Under | 52c | 555$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.6 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 54c | 417$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.18 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 359.67$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.3 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 52c | 303.9$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.63 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 54c | 217.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 286 | 16.4%47 W · 239 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4892…27bcbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ca…eb95backed Under | 57c | 170$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 153.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.73 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 47c | 127.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Under | 53c | 117.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 53c | 116$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 12c | 115.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Under | 52c | 112.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 47c | 110.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 105.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…4be3backed Under | 50c | 97.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 46c | 93.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 60c | 84.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Under | 53c | 75.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 53c | 58.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 53c | 58.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 54c | 57.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 54.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Under | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 43c | 43.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 42c | 39.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…958ebacked Under | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614f…114dbacked Under | 54c | 37.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 335 | 47.2%158 W · 177 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…7db3backed Under | 56c | 35.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…9b14backed Under | 54c | 30.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…b669backed Under | 57c | 28.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e5…7b2ebacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Over | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…b832backed Under | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…0feebacked Over | 79c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -6.8wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5this page
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Thunder vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.