TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Thunder, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$190,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,747 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Thunder51c51,993$26,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,516.4351844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Timberwolves49c51,571$25,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,301.311,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves49c37,848$18,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,317.129,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ee…ca3cbacked Thunder51c26,109$13,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,4002356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Timberwolves53c14,445$7,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,850.541,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe56d…2b65backed Thunder51c11,188$5,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7067552%39 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c81…842ebacked Thunder52c10,324$5,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,317850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Timberwolves51c8,404$4,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,085.4745850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder46c7,688$3,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,541.822,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Thunder49c7,468$3,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,630.6815545.8%71 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Timberwolves53c6,599$3,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,086.82,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves50c6,336$3,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,182.894,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1702…4666backed Thunder51c5,294$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7001030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-40.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves54c4,053$2,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,881.781,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves50c3,913$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,962.84,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Thunder51c3,500$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,784.9346145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Thunder50c3,241$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.4442648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Timberwolves50c2,497$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.8118343.7%80 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder49c2,044$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.183,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Thunder51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02047748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Thunder49c1,897$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.4448347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder50c1,817$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.932,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb74b…f6b7backed Timberwolves50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7502759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves49c1,221$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.998,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Timberwolves53c1,135$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.82,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Thunder52c1,092$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.9458347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Thunder46c1,077$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.3739842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa392…1415backed Timberwolves53c700$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32914245.1%64 W · 78 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves49c693.05$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.813,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Timberwolves49c628.68$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.453,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x00d4…0a6abacked Timberwolves48c541.43$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.546756.7%38 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Timberwolves48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2602,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8415…dfe1backed Timberwolves49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25519647.4%93 W · 103 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Thunder47c469.87$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4835747.1%168 W · 189 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves48c416$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.326,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x486f…b325backed Thunder47c354.28$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.9712143.8%53 W · 68 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Timberwolves49c326.53$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.5323847.1%112 W · 126 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves51c319.02$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.143,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1683…6906backed Thunder49c310$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.230146.2%139 W · 162 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Timberwolves50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12595548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Timberwolves54c250$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves48c236.64$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.055,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Thunder51c227.16$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8589050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Timberwolves50c221$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.261,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Timberwolves49c219.72$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.7221243.4%92 W · 120 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Timberwolves49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0863447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Timberwolves49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10252844.7%236 W · 292 L+1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10078652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Timberwolves49c199$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4923630.1%71 W · 165 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed Thunder51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022850.9%116 W · 112 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Thunder52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2984…57c8backed Thunder52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005851.7%30 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Timberwolves53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6881845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Timberwolves52c165$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.021,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Timberwolves53c132.08$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0872250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Thunder50c129.41$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.543,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab2c…7e7cbacked Thunder49c122.05$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.522330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-42.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x891f…88bfbacked Timberwolves52c119.23$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2323249.6%115 W · 117 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Thunder51c116.5$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.422,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Thunder44c115.78$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.339736.3%144 W · 253 L-27.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Timberwolves48c114.15$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9625753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Thunder46c109.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4753043.8%232 W · 298 L-25.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Timberwolves49c108.06$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.118645.3%39 W · 47 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc98a…edacbacked Thunder49c105.8$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.843447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Thunder52c104$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.841048.3%198 W · 212 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Timberwolves49c100.36$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1812051.7%62 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd402…5a50backed Thunder51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5128058.2%163 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Timberwolves53c99.74$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.631,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Thunder50c98.84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.422,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Thunder50c91.44$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5487750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Timberwolves55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9150351.5%259 W · 244 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3518…c4aebacked Thunder47c81.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2111241.1%46 W · 66 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e65…701cbacked Timberwolves50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407038.6%27 W · 43 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x043c…3a39backed Timberwolves50c79.74$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Thunder49c69.41$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.012,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Timberwolves53c68.96$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4124250.8%123 W · 119 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Thunder51c67.02$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9545651.1%233 W · 223 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3c04…2e2dbacked Timberwolves52c65.38$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3850648%243 W · 263 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa574…28dcbacked Thunder49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.44040%16 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba35…92bdbacked Thunder47c59.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1925930.5%79 W · 180 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Timberwolves51c57.2$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0392750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Timberwolves48c55.14$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4139756.7%225 W · 172 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Timberwolves48c52.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1711849.2%58 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8918…f4e4backed Thunder49c50.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.963450%17 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Timberwolves55c50.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9190560.8%550 W · 355 L-2.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Thunder49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.538252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Thunder44c49.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7945653.5%244 W · 212 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d90…cf08backed Timberwolves52c48.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0819940.7%81 W · 118 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Timberwolves49c46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3439041%160 W · 230 L-32.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed Timberwolves50c42.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2845460.4%274 W · 180 L+21.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Thunder47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020241.1%83 W · 119 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Thunder48c39.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.211847.5%56 W · 62 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Thunder51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25ae…b2b1backed Thunder49c37.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Timberwolves49c36.81$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6566646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Thunder50c35.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.681,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f8d…1a96backed Timberwolves49c34.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.749445.7%43 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec89…8de0backed Thunder37c34.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.815860.3%35 W · 23 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8fe…a06fbacked Thunder47c30.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.441040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Thunder47c30.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4121645.8%99 W · 117 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.