TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Thunder, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,596
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$241,398

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,596 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d8a…e842backed Timberwolves54c143,617$78,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,449.912568%17 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+29.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Thunder45c40,000$18,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,00027747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder46c34,247$15,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,628.412,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Thunder47c13,796$6,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,51224450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c81…842ebacked Thunder47c11,984$5,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,649.14850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Thunder46c9,305$4,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,300.933,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Thunder48c9,247$4,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,397.3642648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Timberwolves53c8,000$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,76020744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Thunder47c6,459$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,06049246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf154…27e3backed Thunder48c5,254$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5009051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7973…34d4backed Thunder47c4,899$2,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3085437%20 W · 34 L-6.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3860…0efcbacked Thunder48c4,882$2,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.412950.4%65 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9e5…0abbbacked Thunder47c4,772$2,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,243742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71a6…de14backed Thunder47c4,398$2,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-59.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Timberwolves53c4,300$2,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.8925753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Thunder45c3,279$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.8126544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa341…04a3backed Thunder47c3,249$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Thunder47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder43c2,920$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.278,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e46…35efbacked Timberwolves56c2,679$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.313850%19 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Thunder47c2,527$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20032150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Thunder47c2,329$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.8270246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves53c1,860$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.789,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Timberwolves54c1,600$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73623630.1%71 W · 165 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder46c1,501$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.234,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Timberwolves54c1,480$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.6328554.7%156 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder47c1,460$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.982,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder45c1,333$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.852,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder43c987.73$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.725,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Thunder49c816.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40025951.4%133 W · 126 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Thunder45c759.16$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.3121243.4%92 W · 120 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder46c688.47$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.443,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c7…4138backed Timberwolves52c649.98$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.992045%9 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Thunder46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2302,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…3438backed Timberwolves54c450$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2077544%33 W · 42 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Thunder47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Thunder46c424.49$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2737747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Thunder48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012650%63 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x691b…fce0backed Timberwolves53c399.99$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Timberwolves52c376.92$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.9238942.9%167 W · 222 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Timberwolves56c223.21$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2118852.7%99 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Thunder47c212.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40da…0b85backed Thunder47c211.7$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.58232.9%27 W · 55 L-15.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Thunder46c184.75$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3539736.3%144 W · 253 L-27.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Thunder47c182.2$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.632,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Thunder47c163.43$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2411849.2%58 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Thunder47c152.97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.921645.8%99 W · 117 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f32…483dbacked Timberwolves56c142.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.867643.4%33 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Thunder48c140.76$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9926043.8%114 W · 146 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Thunder46c130.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Timberwolves59c125$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2510957.8%63 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder46c123.5$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.973,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0345…56fabacked Thunder44c114.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Thunder40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.645653.5%244 W · 212 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f0…299bbacked Timberwolves75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa5b…2d6ebacked Timberwolves55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.913265.6%21 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa15…95e3backed Thunder47c85.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0421243.4%92 W · 120 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Thunder47c82.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8617155.6%95 W · 76 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Thunder48c81.26$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3943244%190 W · 242 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder43c80.02$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.413,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7690…dfcebacked Timberwolves54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0723644.1%104 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Thunder47c69.85$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8335747.1%168 W · 189 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x486f…b325backed Thunder47c69.85$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8312143.8%53 W · 68 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Thunder48c58.69$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1748451.2%248 W · 236 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee82…1965backed Timberwolves53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.66665.2%43 W · 23 L+10.1wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+28.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Timberwolves55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5533249.7%165 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Thunder47c53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9153839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Thunder46c52.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3639756.7%225 W · 172 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Timberwolves54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2361253.1%325 W · 287 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Timberwolves53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.549351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Timberwolves72c48.44$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4435844.1%158 W · 200 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a29…c0b6backed Timberwolves55c45.61$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.618163%51 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Timberwolves58c44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4833360.4%201 W · 132 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Thunder46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc27f…12a9backed Thunder47c43.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.166753.7%36 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba87…bc76backed Thunder47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed Thunder47c42.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9919242.7%82 W · 110 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Thunder44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6968940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea8d…e9d3backed Thunder41c39.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169245.7%42 W · 50 L-9.8wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-19.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8677…4d2cbacked Timberwolves54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0415643.6%68 W · 88 L-8.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e9c…e966backed Timberwolves55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3614547.6%69 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc76e…caa5backed Timberwolves55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3611545.2%52 W · 63 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea1…6072backed Timberwolves55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3624566.9%164 W · 81 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed Timberwolves55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.362860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+82.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c6a…e018backed Timberwolves55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.363148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd70c…3da8backed Timberwolves77c32.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.473976.9%30 W · 9 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Timberwolves52c28.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8416935.5%60 W · 109 L-16.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe3e3…8322backed Timberwolves55c28.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.