NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9a9218d5e90a0d2884b5e15e718777f3ac73451e626becc9a489a1a60967201
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Thunder, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 50c | 37,971$18,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,985.41 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 21,458$10,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,729 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Timberwolves | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Thunder | 54c | 8,481$4,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,579.97 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 7,812$3,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,254.13 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Timberwolves | 50c | 4,478$2,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,238.81 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Timberwolves | 50c | 4,322$2,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,161 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 48c | 3,533$1,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Thunder | 51c | 2,900$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 2,427$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Thunder | 50c | 2,229$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.47 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder | 54c | 1,757$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.88 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder | 53c | 1,496$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.28 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Timberwolves | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder | 50c | 1,166$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.09 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Timberwolves | 49c | 999.82$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.91 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Thunder | 51c | 895.43$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.52 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder | 55c | 778.4$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.12 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Timberwolves | 46c | 733$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.82 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Thunder | 54c | 715$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.1 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder | 53c | 565.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.94 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Thunder | 51c | 554.92$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.86 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Timberwolves | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 486.55$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.01 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 420.7$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.76 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Timberwolves | 47c | 399.98$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.99 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 328.69$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.92 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Thunder | 52c | 274.94$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.97 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Thunder | 50c | 265.21$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.61 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 48c | 252.85$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Timberwolves | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Thunder | 55c | 222.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.22 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Timberwolves | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…df0fbacked Thunder | 53c | 198$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x580f…c80cbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 198$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Thunder | 51c | 192.16$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Thunder | 50c | 191.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Thunder | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 237 | 48.1%114 W · 123 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Timberwolves | 48c | 181.49$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.37 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Thunder | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Timberwolves | 48c | 123.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…a713backed Thunder | 51c | 122.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Thunder | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Timberwolves | 50c | 108.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193e…76ebbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…6568backed Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 319 | 55.2%176 W · 143 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Thunder | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Thunder | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Thunder | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Thunder | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe156…5074backed Thunder | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Timberwolves | 46c | 63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves | 48c | 59.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Thunder | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Timberwolves | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Thunder | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Thunder | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…4045backed Thunder | 51c | 36.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Timberwolves | 46c | 32.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Thunder | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Timberwolves | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 230 | 51.3%118 W · 112 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Thunder | 50c | 28.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Thunder | 55c | 24.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Thunder | 54c | 21.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Thunder | 55c | 21.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc9…185bbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 292 | 47.9%140 W · 152 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)this page
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Thunder vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.