NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4de8a5aa9bd0738c1fd60fe11b199aa447509802a7a1c33b53c42ec44f60542e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Over | 57c | 53,636$30,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,223.29 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 33,041$14,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,312.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 5,828$2,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,435.03 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 45c | 3,895$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736.02 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 2,074$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.83 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 42c | 1,886$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.92 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 42c | 1,111$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.99 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 1,030$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.62 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under | 42c | 1,027$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.34 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 654.66$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.28 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 375$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 46c | 321.7$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.98 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 59c | 243.9$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…0b85backed Under | 42c | 236.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -15.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 201.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3111backed Over | 59c | 199.68$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…57c8backed Over | 52c | 190.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…0493backed Under | 50c | 190$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 46c | 180.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 43c | 171$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 45c | 167.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 116.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Over | 58c | 111$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 43c | 110.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 60c | 100.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 43c | 92.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Over | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Under | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Under | 39c | 73.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Under | 47c | 42.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Under | 44c | 34.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e1…b57fbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…e52bbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3e…6a59backed Over | 61c | 30.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 58c | 29.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 41c | 28.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…c7fabacked Under | 41c | 25.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe178…e480backed Under | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Over | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5this page
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Thunder vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.