NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9d224ff964ace02d964c32e023b2e523172240368dfb2276991fd633a162afa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Thunder, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 58c | 10,533$6,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,146.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 41c | 8,121$3,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,798.83 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 44c | 3,457$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 48c | 2,321$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.74 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…b6ffbacked Thunder | 59c | 1,668$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.12 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Thunder | 62c | 1,050$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Thunder | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves | 50c | 980.01$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.91 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Thunder | 58c | 858.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder | 59c | 609$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.52 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2219…e243backed Thunder | 60c | 520$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 502.5$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.3 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Thunder | 51c | 468$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.09 | 619 | 39.6%245 W · 374 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Thunder | 48c | 465$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.01 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Timberwolves | 38c | 457.1$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.4 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Timberwolves | 41c | 397.12$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.86 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Timberwolves | 51c | 390.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.18 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Thunder | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Thunder | 8c | 322.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Timberwolves | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Thunder | 44c | 232.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Timberwolves | 41c | 221.49$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.68 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Thunder | 59c | 202.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 364 | 49.7%181 W · 183 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79b…cf30backed Thunder | 62c | 201.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Thunder | 61c | 139.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Thunder | 19c | 125.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Thunder | 57c | 123.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Thunder | 20c | 117.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Timberwolves | 41c | 102.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Thunder | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Timberwolves | 40c | 84.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Timberwolves | 42c | 76.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Thunder | 58c | 67.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Timberwolves | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c8…2f5abacked Timberwolves | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…a799backed Timberwolves | 60c | 56.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Timberwolves | 40c | 47.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Thunder | 61c | 43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Thunder | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Timberwolves | 52c | 37.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff8…5728backed Thunder | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Timberwolves | 40c | 27.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…2632backed Timberwolves | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Thunder | 61c | 22.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)this page
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Thunder vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.