TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Raptors, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,330,359
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,440,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,330,359 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 774 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Raptors19c67,045$12,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,306.6787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder75c51,003$38,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,389.575,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Thunder80c50,000$40,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,0005350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Raptors19c40,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,399.8119048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f10…76b3backed Thunder76c33,748$25,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,557.591855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors26c32,564$8,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,046.414,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Thunder67c31,705$21,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,090.771,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Raptors24c27,778$6,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,111.2722457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Thunder69c26,662$18,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,446.921,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Raptors40c25,088$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,088.1821944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Thunder0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Thunder71c22,338$15,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,882.7752242.7%223 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Thunder68c21,992$14,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,9945347.2%25 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Raptors19c20,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,199.8920551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Raptors25c19,586$4,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,763.5723747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Raptors19c18,322$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,821.7276746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Raptors25c16,116$4,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,096.6148352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Raptors20c15,978$3,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,829.0948938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Thunder67c15,278$10,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,249.4614751%75 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Raptors76c15,041$11,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,634.321,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Raptors20c15,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,00020352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors19c14,184$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,476.182,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Raptors17c13,649$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,328.5951844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Raptors35c12,874$4,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,422.8848845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Raptors27c11,988$3,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,740.4415250.7%77 W · 75 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Raptors18c11,654$2,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,542.5447028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb78…5206backed Raptors22c11,606$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,106.082733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f6d…4ad5backed Raptors19c10,001$1,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,056.187943%34 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Raptors19c9,760$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,901.891,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors24c8,855$2,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,764.48,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Raptors23c8,839$2,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,766.5112541.6%52 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Thunder55c8,581$4,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,752.1589444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Thunder78c8,197$6,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,386.8848347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Raptors28c7,446$2,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,337.2412143%52 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Thunder79c7,352$5,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,825.3712843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Raptors18c7,050$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7611,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Raptors18c7,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,74032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Raptors24c6,530$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,942.3250838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Raptors36c6,344$2,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,036.0820758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Raptors19c6,296$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,118.5838046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Thunder76c6,208$4,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,73030157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Raptors18c5,975$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,895.4731430.3%95 W · 219 L-1.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed Raptors35c5,714$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,714.293938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3873…c068backed Thunder72c5,600$4,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,010.6614537.9%55 W · 90 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x741a…4dbebacked Raptors26c5,358$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,972.863138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Raptors20c5,128$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,102.5712955%71 W · 58 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Raptors24c5,100$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,860.524634.6%85 W · 161 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Raptors19c5,000$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,05014244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Thunder80c5,000$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,989.91,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Thunder73c4,994$3,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,654.7739744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7777…1d3dbacked Raptors18c4,900$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0181163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+62%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Raptors34c4,390$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,912.6385344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Thunder70c4,233$2,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,978.3523256.9%132 W · 100 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Raptors20c4,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,20019645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed77…d9d0backed Raptors18c4,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2801947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Thunder75c3,887$2,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,906.682176.2%16 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+30.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Raptors20c3,500$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Raptors28c3,286$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,375.451,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Raptors25c3,280$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,457.052,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Raptors20c3,147$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,515.2820638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Raptors20c3,128$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,502.6334654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Raptors39c3,000$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8301668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Raptors19c3,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,42095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Raptors19c3,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.9678445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7321…5e5fbacked Thunder65c3,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.911520%3 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-74.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x88db…3843backed Raptors19c2,913$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,352.3117546.3%81 W · 94 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Thunder72c2,830$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,043.682,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Raptors18c2,821$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,313.0627424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Raptors18c2,778$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,277.787536%27 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd2…1e85backed Raptors15c2,667$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,266.679131.9%29 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Raptors19c2,632$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,131.5840041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Thunder0c2,543$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8714533.1%48 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Raptors20c2,538$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,03026131%81 W · 180 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xec9a…ad34backed Raptors20c2,500$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0006432.8%21 W · 43 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x792b…146abacked Raptors20c2,500$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00023343.3%101 W · 132 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Thunder80c2,404$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,923.4362347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae1…faefbacked Raptors18c2,400$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9682846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Thunder63c2,345$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.96758.2%39 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf312…eee8backed Raptors42c2,330$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.422842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d46…cf8bbacked Raptors22c2,274$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.977651.3%39 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca5…e6c9backed Raptors20c2,200$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,76611256.3%63 W · 49 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Thunder74c2,044$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.015,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Raptors23c2,039$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560.4761939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ad8…fdffbacked Raptors48c2,000$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Raptors19c2,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.9975347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Thunder1c1,998$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Thunder53c1,912$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.911,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a0…9251backed Raptors19c1,900$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,538.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+79.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Thunder79c1,888$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.4376850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Thunder14c1,819$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.4181529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Thunder1c1,777$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.771,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Raptors27c1,745$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.5638540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Raptors29c1,734$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.5326546%122 W · 143 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b9…b6a9backed Raptors24c1,667$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.385427.8%15 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71a5…c3eabacked Thunder66c1,660$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1005646.4%26 W · 30 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Raptors36c1,626$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.433,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Thunder79c1,621$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.3824752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Raptors22c1,556$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.345129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e2…51e8backed Raptors18c1,505$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.93922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Raptors18c1,500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23031538.1%120 W · 195 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.