NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99757b4ed289ac3b765b33bf81bcdd508224000ef47d551e6e1bae65ffbe2a80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Thunder, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf031…c80cbacked Raptors | 48c | 50,368$24,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,191.31 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d894backed Raptors | 49c | 41,800$20,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,354 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Thunder | 52c | 24,832$12,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,912.47 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder | 52c | 22,085$11,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,454.08 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 51c | 21,391$10,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,909.57 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 52c | 20,131$10,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,391.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Raptors | 48c | 6,767$3,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,518.84 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 47c | 5,869$2,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,092.62 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Thunder | 51c | 4,800$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,448 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | +18.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Thunder | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder | 52c | 3,846$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.77 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Thunder | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Thunder | 55c | 1,613$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.04 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Raptors | 48c | 1,300$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.8 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Thunder | 51c | 868.86$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.12 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 56c | 462.18$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Thunder | 55c | 437$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.48 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Thunder | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Thunder | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…7ac0backed Raptors | 51c | 198.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Raptors | 49c | 197$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Thunder | 27c | 106.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Thunder | 55c | 106$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Thunder | 49c | 104.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f32…483dbacked Thunder | 51c | 97.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Raptors | 46c | 89.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Thunder | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Raptors | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Thunder | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 587 | 54.7%321 W · 266 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…e717backed Thunder | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Thunder | 54c | 46.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb597…2949backed Raptors | 60c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…aecfbacked Raptors | 49c | 45.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Thunder | 51c | 43.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…2a3fbacked Raptors | 48c | 41.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Raptors | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Thunder | 49c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8c…2157backed Thunder | 52c | 39.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Thunder | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Raptors | 49c | 34.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +9.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3adc…972dbacked Raptors | 49c | 32.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Thunder | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Thunder | 53c | 22.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Thunder | 52c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Thunder | 52c | 20.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Thunder | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a51…ef48backed Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)this page
- Aaron Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Collin Murray-Boyles: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. ThunderRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.