NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x617697b9fea8e55a3bf3504edbb630d327a845080c5c024258a9a861c7b4bbfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Thunder, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Thunder | 46c | 27,625$12,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,798.1 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 54c | 14,470$7,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,700.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors | 54c | 4,000$2,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Raptors | 57c | 3,158$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.89 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 65c | 2,545$1,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Raptors | 56c | 2,500$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.98 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Raptors | 53c | 2,377$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.19 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Raptors | 56c | 1,800$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Raptors | 57c | 1,782$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.46 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Thunder | 45c | 1,028$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.6 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors | 54c | 917$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.35 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder | 43c | 883.22$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.78 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Raptors | 56c | 709.99$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.4 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder | 44c | 693.03$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.93 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Thunder | 43c | 499.94$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.98 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…cbb1backed Thunder | 46c | 454.57$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Thunder | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Raptors | 55c | 425.45$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.45 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Thunder | 43c | 419$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.17 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Raptors | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Thunder | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors | 53c | 290.86$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.7 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Raptors | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Raptors | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Thunder | 46c | 183$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Raptors | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Raptors | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Thunder | 44c | 163.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Thunder | 44c | 122.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Thunder | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 32.9%80 W · 163 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Raptors | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Raptors | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked Raptors | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…2924backed Raptors | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors | 70c | 92.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Raptors | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Thunder | 44c | 87.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 147 | 54.4%80 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Thunder | 44c | 69.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Thunder | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Raptors | 54c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Raptors | 55c | 55.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…1f46backed Raptors | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Raptors | 57c | 52.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Thunder | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Raptors | 57c | 42.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Raptors | 56c | 41.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Raptors | 55c | 40.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Raptors | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Thunder | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…51d1backed Raptors | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Raptors | 55c | 26.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Raptors | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)this page
- Aaron Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Collin Murray-Boyles: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. ThunderRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.