Weather · resolved market
Will there be 5-7 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f09aaa95a19de09a4933798750fcdd13dc1e4fa08382a04422c664f963e534c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72c0…d9ffbacked No | 1c | 1,064$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 41c | 899.98$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.49 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 62c | 591.08$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.76 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 7c | 433.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +434.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8158…9b77backed No | 3c | 348.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…800ebacked Yes | 7c | 301.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,251.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 285.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.29 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…e004backed Yes | 7c | 203.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,251.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…f106backed Yes | 8c | 189.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,215.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…6755backed Yes | 7c | 184.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,392.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2266…83b6backed Yes | 6c | 184.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +681.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 43c | 174.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked Yes | 30c | 165.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 17c | 161.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe96f…b647backed Yes | 8c | 147.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 8cpaid | +1,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd76b…dd5fbacked Yes | 35c | 141.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…e6f2backed Yes | 19c | 107.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +428.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2a…22b9backed Yes | 19c | 98.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed Yes | 21c | 94.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +252.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 12c | 94.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 91.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 76.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 5-7 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?this page
- Will there be 11-13 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?No won
- Will there be 13-15 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?No won
- Will there be 15 or more inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?No won
- Will there be 7-9 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?No won
- Will there be 9-11 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?No won
- Will there be less than 5 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.