Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbe9496eb35ef368190a1fd917439c6cbfad20dccce7d3a84f36dbd55cf8fd36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 10c | 2,014$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.24 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 1,740$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 904.08$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 692.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.16 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 15c | 654.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.46 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 18c | 386.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.75 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 377.67$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 283.52$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.09 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 21c | 280.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.13 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 223.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 76c | 197.26$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 76c | 189.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 78c | 169.76$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.36 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 68c | 141.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x479f…802bbacked No | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…1af3backed Yes | 13c | 128.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 77c | 115.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 65c | 88.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 52c | 85.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 83.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 14c | 83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 18c | 82.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 70.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed No | 63c | 67.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 57c | 60.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 59.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…5430backed Yes | 63c | 57.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 36c | 54.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 35c | 51.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…de48backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed Yes | 43c | 34.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…619cbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ef…af9fbacked No | 72c | 19.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…1fe2backed No | 71c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.