Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46c40d4626e17f202be4668c933a75644baac6f5a7ddca2c0c2efe7f093e778c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 55c | 2,445$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 2c | 814.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 539.74$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 65c | 481.96$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.92 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 26c | 379.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 23c | 364.27$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 301.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 295$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 69c | 252.92$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 45c | 223.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 196.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 187$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 181.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 24c | 176.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 17c | 173$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 80c | 169.34$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 73c | 148.14$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 10c | 142.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 131.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 122.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 114.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 50c | 105.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 26c | 102.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 101.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 22c | 95.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 95.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…4a36backed Yes | 20c | 94.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 71c | 92.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 84.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 83.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 64c | 82.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 79.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 76.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 62c | 73.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 62.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a9…ad8bbacked No | 55c | 59.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 58.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 48c | 53.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…1af3backed Yes | 19c | 51.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 51.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 47.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…3803backed No | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 46.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed No | 37c | 46.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 66c | 44.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 40c | 43.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 42.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 45c | 40.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 61c | 37.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 76c | 32.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…5430backed No | 40c | 32.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 43c | 32.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 67c | 31.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked No | 72c | 30.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 73c | 30.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 76c | 29.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 73c | 27.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8c…f34abacked No | 48c | 26.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 25.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 77c | 22.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…1258backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…90a5backed No | 76c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 76c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 76c | 17.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 73c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…6977backed No | 78c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.