Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9395e4fed424f0fe054f01151ed361328196a94836e9dcd00ecfb22cced261e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 28c | 2,495$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.01 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 45c | 1,526$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 589.26$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 479.56$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 78c | 425.01$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.54 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 47c | 410.73$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.36 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 25c | 395.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 368.2$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 262.21$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 27c | 223.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 207.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 72c | 205$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 197.74$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 72c | 192.94$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 72c | 175$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 148.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 36c | 136.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 128.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 46c | 118.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 54c | 112.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 76c | 107.08$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 98.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 29c | 96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 16c | 92.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 25c | 90.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 88.48$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 88.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…3803backed No | 75c | 86.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 81.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 28c | 81.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 49c | 78.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 77.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 30c | 76.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 30c | 74.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 73.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 61c | 69.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 69.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 67.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 51c | 67.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 28c | 65.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 56c | 64.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked No | 63c | 63.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 59.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 58.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 35c | 55.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 55c | 53.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 53.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 65c | 50.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x701d…d115backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 53c | 49.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked No | 66c | 48.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 58c | 48.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 42c | 47.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 46.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 63c | 46.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 64c | 46.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 64c | 44.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 60c | 41.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 35c | 41.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 40.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…c791backed Yes | 40c | 37.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 47c | 37.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…60bcbacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 76c | 33.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 72c | 29.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 76c | 29.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…6534backed Yes | 51c | 29.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 67c | 28.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 54c | 28.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479f…802bbacked Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…4432backed No | 66c | 25.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 22.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 75c | 22.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked No | 54c | 20.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.