TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,701
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,701 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes25c1,690$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.178,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcac7…37d8backed Yes24c1,270$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3108240.2%33 W · 49 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c799.16$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.828,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes8c638.89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.831,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes18c604.31$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No78c592.33$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.662,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes29c577.25$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.2754735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No76c391$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.934,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes20c317.25$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1157150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes29c315.44$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9659021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf44d…28b8backed No74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes24c258.75$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.311,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbe2…f54abacked No70c233.3$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6110744.9%48 W · 59 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes38c217.02$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.116,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes16c214.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.713,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b79…49c5backed No80c210.35$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.352781.5%22 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick79cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No71c199.83$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.081,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes26c199.55$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.152,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes11c186.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.532,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes8c181.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.22,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No75c178.35$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.184,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes21c167.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3637942.5%161 W · 218 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No76c159.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes10c148.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2796015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes27c140.9$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.75,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No72c138.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.881,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c129.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes30c128.01$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.354335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No71c126.8$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.693,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe39f…c040backed Yes17c112.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8214832.4%48 W · 100 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes29c111$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.031,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes23c110.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.391,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes28c109.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.954853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes24c103.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.591,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.61,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.149675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3156…8f96backed Yes21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.48620.9%18 W · 68 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c99.58$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ab…6412backed Yes42c99.14$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.132528%7 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes20c89.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6654154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c82.62$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.224,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes32c82.26$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2714725.2%37 W · 110 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes37c82.24$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6453258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Yes31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.87129.6%21 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+82.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed Yes21c73.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4433550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No74c72.52$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.94,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No56c66.83$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4721338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c63.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed Yes39c62.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.619260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x150a…b6b1backed Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.013823.7%9 W · 29 L-8.7wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-64.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No76c58.4$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.752,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No70c57.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.269150.5%46 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x479f…802bbacked No76c55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.95850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed No71c54.17$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.926651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33ab…149bbacked No71c50.08$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2920569.8%143 W · 62 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1529281.5%238 W · 54 L+27.9wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+14.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c46.8$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.883,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…a32abacked Yes37c44.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.221633.8%73 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd73…3cc0backed Yes27c44.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.926968.1%47 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.252,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d5…ce23backed No78c39.79$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6915062.7%94 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc0b…a782backed Yes48c38.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4451537.5%193 W · 322 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes28c38.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No63c37.49$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7856322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7b8…d8cebacked No70c35.61$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.615455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes36c32.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6845540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No69c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.924,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfc…26febacked Yes36c31.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.432516%4 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-29.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.33,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No75c29.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.487,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62d3…e694backed Yes37c28.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5416135.4%57 W · 104 L-12.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No78c26.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.661,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No80c25.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0154867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No75c24.4$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0851156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No62c23.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.751,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No73c22.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.131,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2706…c6bebacked No74c21.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5631866%210 W · 108 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dec…de48backed No70c21.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.422846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-24.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No73c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4725877.5%200 W · 58 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.821370.9%151 W · 62 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.655261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ccc…d0c5backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed No74c16.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3617020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No79c15.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3155855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3b…d0a9backed No73c15.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.012378.3%18 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick76cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No73c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.051,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No70c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.551,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e5a…a270backed No70c14.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.381258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick63cpaid+33.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.