Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3ce63eacbb0473fa6f6bc501175b9928aeb713abcd947ea1f2ee4433f940304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 1,690$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 24c | 1,270$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 799.16$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 638.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 604.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 592.33$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 29c | 577.25$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.27 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 391$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 20c | 317.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 29c | 315.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.96 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 24c | 258.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 70c | 233.3$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 217.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 16c | 214.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 80c | 210.35$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 199.83$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 199.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 186.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 181.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 178.35$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 21c | 167.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 159.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 148.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 140.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 138.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 129.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 30c | 128.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 126.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 17c | 112.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 111$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 23c | 110.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 28c | 109.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 24c | 103.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 99.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…6412backed Yes | 42c | 99.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 20c | 89.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 82.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 32c | 82.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 37c | 82.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 21c | 73.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 72.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 56c | 66.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 63.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 39c | 62.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 58.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 70c | 57.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x479f…802bbacked No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 71c | 54.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 71c | 50.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 46.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 37c | 44.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed Yes | 27c | 44.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 78c | 39.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 48c | 38.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 28c | 38.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 63c | 37.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 70c | 35.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 36c | 32.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…26febacked Yes | 36c | 31.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 29.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 37c | 28.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 26.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 80c | 25.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 75c | 24.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 62c | 23.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 22.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 74c | 21.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…de48backed No | 70c | 21.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…d0c5backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 74c | 16.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 79c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…d0a9backed No | 73c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…a270backed No | 70c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.