Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5114ed902736e16a4eaf69b01c377037f763dee37c3934c800582f37d4a079a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 1,023$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.1 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 54c | 538.91$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.69 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked No | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 58c | 500$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.15 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 370.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 76c | 350.05$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.84 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b41…652dbacked No | 46c | 327.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 300.85$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 260.8$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 31c | 256.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 27c | 250.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 49c | 214$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 48c | 203$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 74c | 202.31$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 40c | 202$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.46 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked No | 42c | 199.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 53c | 187.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 53c | 177.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 161.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked No | 45c | 158.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 31c | 148.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 67c | 139.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 54c | 138.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 53c | 134.59$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 43c | 133.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed No | 31c | 131$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked No | 9c | 120.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 71c | 116.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 71c | 114.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 56c | 109$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 40c | 105.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 64c | 103.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 59c | 98.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 70c | 97.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 80.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 73c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 42c | 76.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 48c | 75.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 75.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 53c | 75.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 71.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 55c | 69.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 37c | 66.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 59c | 63.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 72c | 62.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 72c | 61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed No | 58c | 57.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 51c | 51.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 53c | 51.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 53c | 49.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 49.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 42c | 48.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 54c | 46.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 46c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 54c | 42.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 58c | 42.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 77c | 41.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 63c | 41.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 52c | 40.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 65c | 40.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 55c | 40.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 42c | 38.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 54c | 36.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…ae18backed Yes | 80c | 35.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…eec5backed No | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 50c | 33.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 38c | 30.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…3756backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 49c | 29.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 72c | 29.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 43c | 29.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.