Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8718623b0fce84fa8e4e53ed16797ac674dd8b8a99b29ca8f147543f2e8a574f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 878.44$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.19 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 381.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 299.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 299.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 252.68$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 231.19$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 26c | 223.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 214$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 199$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 75c | 160.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 58c | 137.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 30c | 131.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 26c | 116.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 31c | 88.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 14c | 86.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 80.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 74.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd46…4c7dbacked No | 68c | 73.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 72.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 60c | 68.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 65.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…ea4fbacked Yes | 31c | 65.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 57.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 54.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 28c | 52.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a0…18c3backed Yes | 26c | 46.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 46.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 44.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 26c | 41.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 39.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 56c | 37.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 75c | 37.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 65c | 34.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 73c | 34.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 35c | 31.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 31.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 30.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 40c | 30.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 43c | 26.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 42c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 21.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 74c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.