Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d5750a4c8251950d52548a50f1dc03ffbaa7b827118651be853546b654292d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 1,943$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 23c | 1,728$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 77c | 1,326$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.4 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 744.58$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed No | 76c | 490.51$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 78c | 490.33$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 75c | 478.87$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.87 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 25c | 439.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 19c | 427.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 27c | 403.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 23c | 320.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 21c | 269.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 250.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 243.08$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…6450backed No | 77c | 224.52$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 7c | 216.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 191$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 26c | 190.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 182.82$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 169.6$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 12c | 164.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 157.24$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f5…c4c9backed No | 78c | 150.61$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 133.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 122.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 20c | 118.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 108$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 25c | 105.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 95.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 92.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 92.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 79c | 83.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 69.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 31c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 68.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed Yes | 25c | 63.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 78c | 61.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 24c | 55.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 21c | 54.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 44.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 40.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 39.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 80c | 34.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 75c | 23.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 23.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca18…be78backed No | 75c | 19.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 69c | 18.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 15.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 78c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a0…18c3backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or higher on August 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.