Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f58bb90e0941d6774bdf3fb0d9a3f7697a6cb70c4ff4f9776119e14b89aeeba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 76c | 1,059$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.54 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 32c | 867.07$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.93 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 651.42$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 586.53$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.12 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 15c | 316.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 243.08$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 230.65$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 18c | 199.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 32c | 173.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…d288backed Yes | 32c | 172.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 19c | 168.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 28c | 160$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 157.24$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 26c | 155.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 152.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 31c | 148.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 136.26$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 108$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 23c | 107.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 103.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 26c | 101.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 13c | 99.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 20c | 97.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 27c | 84.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 81.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 71.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 68.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 68.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 19c | 67.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 26c | 57.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…7d0dbacked Yes | 21c | 55.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 72c | 54.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 27c | 49.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed Yes | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 44.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 41.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 40.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 32.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 33c | 31.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 23.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 76c | 16.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or higher on August 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.