Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14fd57cb5362ff0dcb85ecae4dfda18085580a6c599c526beba1b3f9681b1b1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 24c | 809.42$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.57 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 32c | 595.98$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.48 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 22c | 382.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 338.47$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 291.74$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 24c | 206.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 192.69$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 78c | 192.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 31c | 162.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 161.77$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 157.24$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 139$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 18c | 119.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 117$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 112.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 103.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 99.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 97.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 95.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 32c | 94.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 82.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 81.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 26c | 70.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked Yes | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 68.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 74c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…7d0dbacked Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 78c | 54.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 50.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 50.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 22c | 49.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 40.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 31.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb446…46ebbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 76c | 25.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 23.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 68c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 71c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 78c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or higher on August 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.