Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c3376b117869db5fa32eeba31a322f390d012cfe6ae1eeeb3c9062d58948ee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 6c | 4,364$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,097.15 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 2c | 4,204$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,105.03 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 31c | 3,700$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.76 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +88%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 11c | 2,815$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,502.51 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 7c | 2,031$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.41 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 45c | 1,330$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.83 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +10.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…ad1dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,654.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 24c | 711.14$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.45 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 9c | 472.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.91 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f29…1e12backed Yes | 4c | 442.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +579.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 8c | 359.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.19 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6577…2660backed No | 45c | 240.13$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 205.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.29 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on June 20?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 46.5% or higher on June 20?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on June 20?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on June 20?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on June 20?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.5% on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.