Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5be3224fcff001dbb11f52ae183c8ada96bb478c9a651bdc03c43572c047f62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 16c | 987.58$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.57 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 8c | 740.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 74c | 637.11$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.02 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 24c | 619.55$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.96 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 599.99$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 6c | 408.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 347.06$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…7249backed Yes | 23c | 292.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…a2c6backed Yes | 8c | 218.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 25c | 207.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 193$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 23c | 121$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 11c | 98.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…2306backed Yes | 12c | 91.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 75c | 86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 72.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 70.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 64.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…0910backed Yes | 23c | 44.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…d2d1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on June 20?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 46.5% or higher on June 20?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on June 20?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on June 20?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on June 20?Yes won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.5% on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.