Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. invade Afghanistan in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce4459c8dfc2b0800778305722ee9a2ad2c62f001c8a40d5e0b136c9e6a679d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 9,005$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.38 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 7,789$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.02 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcc…f652backed Yes | 7c | 6,217$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 4,583$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 4,084$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.38 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 5c | 3,035$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,771$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…ab78backed Yes | 7c | 2,181$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 4c | 2,117$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…c026backed Yes | 8c | 1,800$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 1,684$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba0…24b7backed Yes | 6c | 1,175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,063$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 1,020$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 907.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…c49fbacked Yes | 6c | 847.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…6225backed Yes | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 3c | 449.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 4c | 370$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 350.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd2…95dbbacked Yes | 3c | 340$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…be16backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 5c | 261.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c6…281ebacked Yes | 8c | 256$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…ca90backed Yes | 6c | 244.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…93c1backed Yes | 9c | 205.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.