TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump announce military actions against Iran by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,396
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,775

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,396 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed Yes20c12,703$2,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,491.537041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24de…83cbbacked No79c7,604$6,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.061758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes2c4,001$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.818516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1287…e491backed Yes11c3,724$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+99.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed No77c2,520$1,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.5711428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes10c2,077$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.135817.2%10 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes34c2,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6805240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4528320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes9c1,126$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1637740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9019…77b5backed Yes1c1,082$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea2…823cbacked Yes21c995$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0c…95abbacked Yes21c970$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc404…1af8backed No78c922.58$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.361030%3 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick57cpaid-54.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6bd8…c5cebacked No79c900$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x647a…7c59backed No79c890$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked Yes30c849.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2551428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38d…6c36backed Yes2c800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64f9…849abacked Yes7c749.96$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes11c694.73$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.424940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfade…283bbacked No77c693.62$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.631250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No77c621.68$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.252369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes17c607.79$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.98368.3%3 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes13c602.56$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813225%8 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc59c…3dd2backed Yes19c525.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc45…13bdbacked No76c499.99$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1182948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c446$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5355618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d51…f56cbacked No70c444$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.2785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick58cpaid+55.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4485…6d42backed Yes37c407.3$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes12c400$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x390a…69a6backed Yes34c327.79$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes37c323.1$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked Yes8c302.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x939c…332cbacked Yes20c298.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.77633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+40%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No64c257.62$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.978331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes26c250$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755742.1%24 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c248.07$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9844111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No60c242.65$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.894438.6%17 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes25c221.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.56041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25d6…e5e9backed Yes23c214.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes14c213.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.851,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcead…b918backed Yes34c211.74$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6032626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e1…2edebacked Yes21c186.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f9b…1743backed No72c173.26$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.26450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No70c171.43$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.43862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+131.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed Yes14c139.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.076358.7%37 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes13c134.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1836527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ef…039bbacked No77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x325d…bafdbacked No76c126.98$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.98666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd118…a96dbacked Yes10c120.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-84.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3669…b07cbacked Yes37c107.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No69c106.32$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.515265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca1e…75edbacked No62c104.7$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.654353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d69…d6f1backed No78c100.9$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.91855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+60.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4440…0b5dbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dbb…73bbbacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3717355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73e…dfd2backed No67c98.72$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes18c96.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6514624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff5b…8c08backed No79c90$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd23…0816backed No60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdb…7358backed No73c78.23$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.122458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+51.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x91b9…dcd8backed No20c76.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.762556%14 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+70.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1ee1…c9a5backed Yes79c75.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6011…f2c9backed Yes20c74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+112.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ed4…561ebacked Yes15c67.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No65c64.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6514048.6%68 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd264…e540backed No80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd62a…2dcfbacked No75c58.63$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.63540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+212.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ea6…933cbacked Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68af…e8a4backed Yes49c53.23$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f29…1e12backed No56c52.21$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.88580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.47per pick33cpaid+579.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked No66c50.88$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.223043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa13a…3c7abacked Yes39c50.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54231%13 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1bb…d672backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3d…7118backed No79c49.08$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe109…71c0backed Yes35c42.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dd7…cddabacked No74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.541822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90d1…6faebacked No74c34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48c9…645dbacked Yes35c32.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb52b…9646backed No71c32.33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.333100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d70…b17ebacked No63c31.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.54425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90e0…c12dbacked No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.572272.7%16 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b52…5758backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d4…8603backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c47…9b02backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43167.7%21 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+108.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa0d8…0a63backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-43.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x893a…9b52backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf581…74f4backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa093…7e5cbacked No77c18.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca68…0626backed No80c13.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.