NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Raptors
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10c09c7ff9b288005cb3046b26db9d9ff050ada1a6d8621bf925dfa5756e25ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Bulls, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Raptors | 66c | 3,518$2,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.67 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Bulls | 15c | 1,040$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Bulls | 32c | 799.97$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.99 | 252 | 36.9%93 W · 159 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Bulls | 2c | 742.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Bulls | 48c | 733.13$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.9 | 667 | 44.5%297 W · 370 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Raptors | 68c | 700.24$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.08 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Bulls | 33c | 611.67$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.85 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Raptors | 67c | 584.56$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.44 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Raptors | 67c | 470.91$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.46 | 1,409 | 40.2%567 W · 842 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Raptors | 68c | 341.58$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…fc95backed Bulls | 32c | 316.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Raptors | 67c | 314.47$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bulls | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 893 | 53%473 W · 420 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Raptors | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bulls | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…1654backed Bulls | 33c | 293.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Bulls | 32c | 251.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 489 | 38.7%189 W · 300 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Bulls | 30c | 231.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Bulls | 15c | 204.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 532 | 50.4%268 W · 264 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bulls | 32c | 154.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Raptors | 68c | 151.94$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Raptors | 71c | 127.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Bulls | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Bulls | 32c | 99.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Raptors | 65c | 97.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…6efcbacked Bulls | 32c | 94.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Raptors | 62c | 67.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Raptors | 68c | 62.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…c033backed Bulls | 32c | 62.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5a…1d01backed Raptors | 71c | 61.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Bulls | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Bulls | 31c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 229 | 39.7%91 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Bulls | 32c | 42.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 194 | 52.1%101 W · 93 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Bulls | 32c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | -20.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdec5…2bbdbacked Raptors | 72c | 41.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Bulls | 31c | 40.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 316 | 31.6%100 W · 216 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…e776backed Bulls | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Raptors | 70c | 37.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Bulls | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 345 | 48.7%168 W · 177 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Bulls | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Raptors | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 258 | 36.8%95 W · 163 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd13…ed6fbacked Raptors | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.