AI · resolved market
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f378adb0bcd8bb569af3ec52e1e87ccd6242de27ec205d220b9369ac2a13fc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $417,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $481,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $417,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf104…b841backed No | 1c | 13,914$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 1c | 9,451$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 8,778$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.87 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…7da0backed No | 2c | 5,357$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 10c | 5,077$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,608$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…eff0backed No | 3c | 4,136$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 6c | 4,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 7c | 3,497$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 3,477$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 5c | 2,954$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 7c | 2,609$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.47 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 8c | 2,459$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.43 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 4c | 2,424$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.37 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 2c | 1,573$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3216backed No | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 13c | 1,208$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.82 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…d4abbacked No | 5c | 1,134$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…47d4backed No | 4c | 1,119$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c0…e981backed No | 6c | 1,090$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bb…28fcbacked No | 3c | 1,071$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed No | 2c | 1,033$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1803…772ebacked No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 12c | 966$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.62 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked No | 8c | 965$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9123…c1b1backed No | 2c | 906.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…b41ebacked No | 3c | 886.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 9c | 830$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 80c | 803$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.6 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked No | 8c | 736.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 2c | 630.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 8c | 629.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 6c | 620.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked No | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9832…aa18backed No | 14c | 583.65$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 9c | 556$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 3c | 539.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…c19abacked No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd9…4fdebacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…6b07backed No | 3c | 449$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…db5fbacked No | 9c | 435.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked No | 5c | 432.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x527b…89b8backed No | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be3…724dbacked No | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd5…4b79backed No | 4c | 383.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d1…4294backed No | 3c | 367.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0910…ce1cbacked No | 5c | 355$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b8…db23backed No | 3c | 353.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked No | 8c | 318.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 8c | 298.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 13c | 262.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 4c | 259.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa08d…e62bbacked No | 4c | 254.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8676…79abbacked No | 12c | 252.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 6c | 220.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2a…e921backed No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 15c | 131.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…c61fbacked No | 17c | 129$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d1…a2a6backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeade…8632backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…879dbacked No | 15c | 107.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbe…4c2bbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3201…e442backed No | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeec0…37c1backed No | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the best AI model on October 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Meta have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Microsoft have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Tencent have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.