AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcee77f3bc77719c202b7818f0376c25d88bd617378b8ef6658bedeef9c97b0cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $369,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $369,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 103,314$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.4 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…3c81backed Yes | 9c | 13,961$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 2c | 12,433$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.94 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…ed3cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f84…9958backed Yes | 1c | 10,065$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 10,061$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…a108backed Yes | 2c | 4,584$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa5…6292backed Yes | 3c | 4,464$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…b21dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,001$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…57cabacked Yes | 1c | 3,729$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 3,450$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…743bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,215$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1803…772ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,173$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0541…5ecfbacked Yes | 7c | 2,933$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…9c25backed Yes | 10c | 2,843$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbb…9355backed Yes | 1c | 2,812$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d0…2f7ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,418$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c91…b7d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,417$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,297$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21dc…3c76backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…1befbacked Yes | 2c | 1,896$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,876$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,837$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,815$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…c19abacked Yes | 4c | 1,750$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7937backed Yes | 4c | 1,708$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca9…e423backed Yes | 6c | 1,589$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,477$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2723…6f19backed Yes | 3c | 1,413$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…19bbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c4…89bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,271$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,241$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…6e85backed Yes | 9c | 1,216$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 3c | 1,129$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9832…aa18backed Yes | 9c | 1,124$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc413…d1a7backed Yes | 3c | 1,083$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed Yes | 1c | 1,075$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,074$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 4c | 1,070$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fd…c2e2backed Yes | 3c | 1,042$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca25…0f35backed Yes | 3c | 1,035$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…3ffcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 11c | 904.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…96f2backed Yes | 1c | 774.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 12c | 708.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…d532backed Yes | 3c | 661.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa2…b436backed Yes | 2c | 658.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…9e09backed Yes | 3c | 630$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 2c | 623.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 2c | 599.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 591.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee8d…3b45backed Yes | 3c | 509.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…550dbacked Yes | 4c | 487.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…b6efbacked Yes | 4c | 485.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 4c | 483.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 11c | 395$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7f…de71backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb8…902abacked Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…771fbacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…a38dbacked Yes | 10c | 114.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model on October 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Microsoft have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Tencent have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.