AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09f4ebfde5b2409231661583fb901ae8d1113f5b2eab95fc5cbdfb70ad85f959
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,124$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 50c | 999.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 32c | 924.14$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.53 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 26c | 779.57$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 13c | 663.56$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 50c | 599.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.33 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 66c | 461.53$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.69 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes | 34c | 410.32$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 376.81$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 341.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2a…f745backed No | 45c | 332.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 66c | 290.58$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 71c | 243.75$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 24c | 182.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 41c | 170.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 33c | 168.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 17c | 157.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 67c | 153.84$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed No | 70c | 142.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 35c | 134.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.28 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 69c | 131.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…e9d1backed Yes | 38c | 112.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 22c | 112$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed No | 49c | 111.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 58c | 108.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 95.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 90.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x103b…33d6backed Yes | 35c | 84.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 16c | 83.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 36c | 61.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 66c | 53.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 40.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 33.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74f4…c4f3backed Yes | 33c | 31.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7624…681bbacked Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Meituan have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.