AI · resolved market
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4f9c5126b0ae9003297a9340130a57029402b4dc94c9082802d98ca8f41132d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 66c | 1,327$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.27 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 51c | 1,221$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.86 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked No | 4c | 1,088$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 968.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 29c | 929.55$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.64 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 39c | 843.11$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.49 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 75c | 774.12$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.51 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 7c | 613.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 386.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…86b9backed No | 57c | 340$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…4ddfbacked Yes | 43c | 340$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…450fbacked Yes | 43c | 259$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ac…784ebacked No | 57c | 259$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0f28backed Yes | 46c | 252$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…b570backed No | 54c | 251.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 38c | 183.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 59c | 156.75$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 66c | 134.46$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…a547backed Yes | 70c | 127.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…015dbacked Yes | 46c | 121$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf72…74fcbacked No | 54c | 121$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…e9d1backed Yes | 43c | 112.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 41c | 105.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 103.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…8314backed Yes | 41c | 101$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…59e9backed No | 59c | 101$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…d398backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.30per pick | 28cpaid | +122%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 97.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 27c | 92.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…4e08backed No | 72c | 90$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…cf2cbacked Yes | 37c | 82.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 45c | 73.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…77cfbacked No | 58c | 58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…8feebacked Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…2a4abacked Yes | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked No | 56c | 54.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9213…c608backed Yes | 59c | 51.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 36c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 68c | 42.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 26c | 40.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…2c6fbacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 61c | 23.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…d8b8backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…6e99backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.