World Politics · resolved market
Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3711ce4799322ea9a6d7b445c39af9849ccde8b25b9e7b09314813ef787f12c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $472,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $698,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $472,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 5c | 33,786$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.73 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 8,040$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.21 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 3c | 4,444$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.21 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 1c | 2,926$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 4c | 2,703$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 1c | 2,656$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,618$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 1c | 2,579$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4661…4bb4backed Yes | 4c | 2,515$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,483$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 1c | 2,425$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…6237backed Yes | 4c | 2,400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 1c | 2,310$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 1c | 2,310$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,271$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 1c | 2,156$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,129$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…8185backed Yes | 1c | 1,410$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 3c | 1,017$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,016$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 3c | 999.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes | 1c | 924$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 1c | 900$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 1c | 900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 1c | 900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…d9edbacked Yes | 1c | 770$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 750.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…5666backed Yes | 5c | 635.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8664…9500backed Yes | 4c | 585.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 5c | 532.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…cc60backed Yes | 4c | 499.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fb…4064backed Yes | 4c | 485.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5387…5baabacked Yes | 5c | 451.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 434.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…99c0backed Yes | 4c | 366.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…e9ebbacked Yes | 4c | 343.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7829…b842backed Yes | 4c | 318.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…4dbdbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.