Us Politics · resolved market
Files proving Epstein or Maxwell were Mossad released before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3954a6adbcfa07eee3a8a9ccfa399026321dc955f325ebee9e9da9027427e1ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 7c | 20,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…61b5backed Yes | 9c | 4,526$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdf…c324backed Yes | 8c | 3,192$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 6c | 2,991$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 7c | 2,300$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,281$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 8c | 2,116$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.32 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 5c | 1,931$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…1b55backed Yes | 6c | 1,429$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…903abacked Yes | 7c | 1,338$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1990…e954backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 5c | 1,236$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,178$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…ab88backed Yes | 4c | 1,138$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,064$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 8c | 995.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27d6…d84ebacked Yes | 8c | 835.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes | 7c | 718.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 4c | 686.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 5c | 667$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 6c | 660.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf577…972ebacked Yes | 6c | 644$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3d…e107backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed Yes | 6c | 371.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 7c | 351.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef43…7b62backed Yes | 6c | 346.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d2…8f47backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8b…e4b6backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.