Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump jail Hillary Clinton?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4364972f0b5f33379092da7564811c02acd0069d45c7c3046cfb17f9f01cd236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,174,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,582,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,174,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffc1…9a12backed Yes | 0c | 66,539$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 1c | 62,569$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…b114backed Yes | 9c | 53,721$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff8…6b01backed Yes | 0c | 53,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ef…fc23backed Yes | 0c | 40,658$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 0c | 18,452$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…5866backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3041…ec85backed Yes | 0c | 13,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 6,296$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…f05cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bd…290fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…1eb7backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…dae8backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…e2efbacked Yes | 1c | 4,943$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…8b6fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,172$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed Yes | 5c | 3,093$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.11 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…dbc4backed Yes | 1c | 2,370$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,092$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed Yes | 1c | 2,055$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…dc58backed Yes | 1c | 1,900$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b09…c16bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,828$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…2217backed Yes | 1c | 1,601$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 6c | 1,518$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 35c | 1,043$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.17 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d7…2413backed Yes | 5c | 1,017$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…ae03backed Yes | 4c | 977.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 3c | 857.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 4c | 662.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 3c | 585$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 14c | 527.27$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…7bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 6c | 266.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 259.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 8c | 234$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc7…a425backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +88%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.