Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Obama congratulate Mamdani by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59dd781620ad5e06ad411381a8087c2148bcedf9fb89d7555d99fcc16dd18ad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 715.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…a660backed Yes | 16c | 608.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 490$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 17c | 254.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…340bbacked Yes | 14c | 250.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…3d9abacked Yes | 15c | 207.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…3e14backed Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 13c | 160.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 11c | 155.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes | 22c | 149.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 78c | 128$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 15c | 111$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…31b8backed Yes | 18c | 102$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 21c | 93.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…83bbbacked Yes | 25c | 61.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 79c | 51.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb77…7368backed Yes | 20c | 51.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…2c57backed No | 78c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.