Middle East · resolved market
Hezbollah enters Israel in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37f95c5d1fba7997aaa074f616d8e42c693e1c487bed2ffa04f6d218cd9ae790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 5c | 6,431$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.31 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…0a6ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,944$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.77 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 1c | 4,954$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 7c | 4,928$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.88 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,341$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 2c | 3,086$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,794$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.15 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 8c | 2,574$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…c470backed Yes | 2c | 2,190$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 13c | 2,156$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 4c | 1,853$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,784$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 7c | 1,721$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.95 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…aa67backed Yes | 2c | 1,452$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,411$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 9c | 1,404$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.93 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 2c | 1,310$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 4c | 1,190$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 77c | 1,174$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.46 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 2c | 1,083$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 5c | 980.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 967.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5870…0dd1backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927d…13a7backed Yes | 4c | 827.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 2c | 806.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 6c | 798.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 747.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 5c | 698.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6f…31debacked Yes | 7c | 678$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 19cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 9c | 630.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…de46backed Yes | 33c | 449.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 8c | 367$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2216…4accbacked Yes | 10c | 338.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x315b…6f77backed Yes | 8c | 301.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ca…b887backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948c…42eebacked Yes | 5c | 272.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x257e…de31backed Yes | 12c | 254.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 11c | 218.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 5c | 205.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 7c | 175.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 14c | 140.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…21f4backed Yes | 18c | 122.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…4502backed Yes | 10c | 95.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…7956backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.