World Politics · resolved market
Record low border encounters in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20ab54f982739ac3eeeca9291fe5219dea6d2e3244051cc31bcbd08d56d7c4ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa14…5133backed Yes | 52c | 36,800$19,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…ee01backed No | 48c | 36,800$17,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,136 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927e…f159backed Yes | 54c | 3,897$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed No | 79c | 3,742$2,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 51c | 1,990$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 76c | 1,248$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.89 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 999.99$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.4 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 49c | 690.58$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.67 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 8c | 681.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 632.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 22c | 538.02$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 74c | 490$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 66c | 477.22$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.36 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 17c | 441.66$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 428.32$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 410.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…9aeabacked Yes | 12c | 409.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 45c | 407.29$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.76 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 400.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed Yes | 36c | 363.08$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 21c | 271$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9c…3b0dbacked Yes | 12c | 244.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 236$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 16c | 222$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…5ae4backed No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…fa19backed Yes | 34c | 176.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 51c | 156.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 13c | 132.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 67c | 128.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 72c | 126.17$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…f25ebacked Yes | 18c | 111.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 14c | 108.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed Yes | 11c | 103.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 67c | 91.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 47c | 85.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 82.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…8338backed No | 62c | 80.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…93c9backed Yes | 32c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…71eebacked Yes | 30c | 66.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed No | 70c | 64.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…9f82backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…fa21backed No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…7a4abacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…0031backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed49…d8c7backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd3…8c6fbacked Yes | 26c | 58.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 59c | 51.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…bab3backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 42c | 35.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf08…f268backed No | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 40c | 30.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 67c | 29.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3235…cef8backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f2…bd77backed Yes | 41c | 29.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x971e…da4ebacked No | 66c | 29.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4d…2cb1backed Yes | 36c | 27.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547e…8cbfbacked No | 62c | 24.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7464…e5bfbacked No | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d22…6743backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.