Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11d39be15f0619c2055393c97591d8c7b6c0a3f81a00cf624a603823bbeb6315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 76c | 9,393$7,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,133.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 8,123$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,251.61 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 1,659$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.28 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 11c | 610.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.56 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 11c | 552.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.1 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Over | 25c | 427.61$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 10c | 322$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +817.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 22c | 321.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.67 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 72c | 286.11$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 10c | 242.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.01 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 25c | 231.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.52 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 70c | 222.08$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.14 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 18c | 216.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 17c | 183.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.63 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…baa7backed Under | 70c | 158.75$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Over | 17c | 150.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.26 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.62 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 19c | 136.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d4…8c7fbacked Under | 79c | 124.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…8824backed Under | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…91a6backed Under | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 29c | 66.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-2.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.