Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4929582300eda6d5281ad722c49f655e903d28c31a809b0d355a4db05dbb69ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 47c | 3,036$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 42c | 2,343$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.32 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e19…1495backed Over | 71c | 1,400$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 29c | 1,309$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.1 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Under | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…d4eabacked Under | 40c | 992.18$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 925.91$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.28 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 907.22$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.86 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 75c | 902$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 42c | 828$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.79 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 579.03$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.54 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 52c | 385.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 63c | 317.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 68c | 316$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 24c | 267.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 30c | 222.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 61c | 204.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Under | 44c | 204.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…5be4backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 74c | 149.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…d51ebacked Under | 43c | 137.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 48c | 128.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 71c | 127.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 60c | 113.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7a…9ca2backed Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 29c | 104.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 75c | 103.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 62c | 100.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…1262backed Under | 40c | 89.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 63c | 78.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 56c | 74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 27c | 72.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…e861backed Under | 28c | 72.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 76c | 67.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Over | 68c | 66.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Over | 57c | 57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Under | 53c | 56.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Under | 63c | 53.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 52.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 51c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 27c | 51.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8720…ea73backed Over | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Over | 37c | 46.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Over | 61c | 45.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 24c | 41.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…dcf5backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 59c | 37.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 68c | 36.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…b34dbacked Under | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…c7acbacked Over | 75c | 31.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…e39dbacked Over | 45c | 30.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Over | 76c | 25.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 55c | 24.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…380cbacked Over | 77c | 24.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 62c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 62c | 19.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 76c | 17.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 129 | 63.6%82 W · 47 L | +12.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 76c | 17.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 76c | 17.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Over | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)FC Metz won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.