Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58d61e1deeeab111b9c59fec25ed72d2a663ebf3bc743cd14cc3e5c4c303d65b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 4,559$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.7 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 37c | 1,892$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 38c | 1,592$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 1,398$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.34 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 62c | 965.39$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 38c | 680$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.4 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 11c | 650$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 436.68$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 74c | 297.5$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 37c | 289.1$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 13c | 204.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Over | 26c | 187$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 63c | 184.49$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 65c | 149.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 70c | 108.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 64c | 102.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 68c | 100.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Under | 65c | 93.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 26c | 79.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 17c | 72.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 70.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…11ebbacked Under | 71c | 68.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 67c | 67.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3d…f1eabacked Over | 34c | 45.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 69c | 43.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 73c | 41.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…d7a0backed Over | 37c | 29.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed Under | 77c | 28.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…4c5cbacked Under | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 75c | 23.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)FC Metz won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.