Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f6056816aa6983927928f8eefbfcc0d66ddd1e378013815871c54070dd2ad92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 49c | 4,787$2,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.03 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 2,698$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.01 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e8…6854backed Under | 49c | 1,981$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 57c | 1,930$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 32c | 1,499$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.68 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Over | 50c | 1,394$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.08 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 43c | 1,162$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.34 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Under | 50c | 1,153$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b20…de61backed Over | 54c | 998.59$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.4wins | -0.44per pick | 54cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 29c | 691.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 555.57$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.29 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Over | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 452.66$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.98 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 42c | 450$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Under | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 79c | 392.41$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 52c | 389.3$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.19 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 49c | 378.88$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…dd55backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 53c | 345.35$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.79 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 32c | 328.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Under | 68c | 323.53$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…c9afbacked Over | 57c | 305.26$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Under | 44c | 246$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.76 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 43c | 241.41$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.6 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 48c | 239.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.79 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 177.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.86 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Under | 79c | 172.2$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 42c | 165$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 23c | 158.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 46c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 148.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 49c | 125$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 43c | 115.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 49c | 108$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 48c | 102.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 52c | 102.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 55c | 91.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 65c | 89.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67aa…8f46backed Under | 77c | 88.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 77c | 73.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 68c | 71.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 57c | 69.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…8027backed Under | 76c | 69.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 56c | 62.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 49c | 60.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 73c | 56.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 52c | 55.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 45c | 53.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 48c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 23c | 49.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 48c | 47.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 54c | 41.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf6…c27dbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Under | 46c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 46c | 39.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa684…ca71backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…590abacked Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 46c | 29.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Under | 54c | 29.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 67c | 27.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c9…f75abacked Under | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 52c | 26.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Over | 53c | 25.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…380cbacked Over | 50c | 24.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…cfa9backed Under | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 48c | 21.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 58c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)FC Metz won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.