Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8afc9257c32da7093118a7cb419ffc1c898a5721039e3d9c2beee41f6c8b0792
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Metzof AS Monaco FC, FC Metz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AS Monaco FC | 30c | 811.48$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.44 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed FC Metz | 69c | 696.87$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.17 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked FC Metz | 67c | 373.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked AS Monaco FC | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked AS Monaco FC | 31c | 228.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked FC Metz | 71c | 226.69$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked FC Metz | 68c | 178.08$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed FC Metz | 70c | 171.43$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked FC Metz | 69c | 148.34$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed AS Monaco FC | 33c | 118.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Metz | 69c | 108$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed AS Monaco FC | 33c | 76.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…1d72backed AS Monaco FC | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed FC Metz | 72c | 24.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked FC Metz | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed FC Metz | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)this page
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.