Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6598b46a93107ec981d7160e9b6327b3f82cc74711acb76d9045ef366b8edfe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 7,326$5,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.43 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Over | 25c | 3,958$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 25c | 3,912$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.91 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 6c | 2,018$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Over | 17c | 1,425$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 76c | 1,273$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.61 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 23c | 776.96$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.52 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 24c | 665.26$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.66 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 75c | 450.03$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.51 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 8c | 423$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 75c | 324.64$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 76c | 259.37$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 141 | 59.6%84 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…2b89backed Under | 76c | 206.21$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 23c | 199.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 77c | 192.35$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 21c | 191.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…5f62backed Under | 77c | 188.27$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 75c | 166.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…1910backed Under | 77c | 153.69$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Over | 26c | 137.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Under | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 133 | 66.2%88 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf36a…832abacked Over | 17c | 125.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 76c | 93.58$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569d…6b18backed Under | 77c | 76.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Under | 77c | 73.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 78c | 63.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…7d07backed Over | 26c | 55.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 76c | 49.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 77c | 47.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc252…0aebbacked Under | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 76c | 35.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422f…da1abacked Under | 77c | 31.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…bdf8backed Under | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f25…4caabacked Under | 76c | 24.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 77c | 19.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…cc05backed Under | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5this page
- AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Juventus FC won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Juventus FC won
- Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.