Us Midterms · resolved market
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3041c7dc3ff913c20b602cee967316eead4ed66f3c57bca532a0cad06fca2796
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 9c | 11,976$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.27 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 10c | 7,244$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.83 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 11c | 3,943$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 10c | 3,732$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.27 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 11c | 2,660$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.85 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 10c | 2,414$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.02 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 2,294$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.26 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 8c | 2,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed No | 7c | 1,834$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.73 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 4c | 1,691$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 1,526$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.68 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 10c | 1,349$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.48 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 12c | 1,306$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 14c | 1,198$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.23 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 8c | 1,158$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 1,145$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.75 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…a0efbacked No | 11c | 999.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb631…7f5abacked No | 10c | 968.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa733…0e46backed No | 10c | 947.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 12c | 837.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 783.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 3c | 780.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…6688backed No | 6c | 762.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 9c | 555$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 7c | 554.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked No | 10c | 511.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 481.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 11c | 469.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…e31cbacked No | 29c | 407.07$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 12c | 401.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 8c | 374.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes | 71c | 364.66$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 10c | 351.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 17c | 350$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed No | 10c | 328.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 13c | 327.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 12c | 273.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 7c | 272.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 271.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 8c | 256.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 9c | 247.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 9c | 247$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 7c | 214.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 20c | 206.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 8c | 165.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 7c | 160.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 8c | 158.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 8c | 149.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 14c | 140.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 8c | 140.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 11c | 129.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 11c | 127.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 123.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 11c | 115$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185d…4cb4backed No | 16c | 115$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…9ddabacked No | 12c | 114.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 12c | 114.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 21c | 102.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 23c | 102.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…8be6backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 12c | 95.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 89.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…4463backed No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 17c | 79.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed No | 13c | 78.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +227%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 79c | 53.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f90…3f1ebacked No | 28c | 49.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 80c | 29.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 79c | 12.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?this page
- Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?No won
- Will Karen Breslin be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?No won
- Will Michael Scanlon be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.