Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x963e2eb7517c989527123c96afc88d500bd3eca432e470636c21c1b0a78289da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 9c | 13,404$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.74 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 4c | 6,109$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.12 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 8c | 5,851$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.61 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes | 10c | 5,331$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.74 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 8c | 3,537$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.29 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…4901backed Yes | 2c | 3,263$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 11c | 2,736$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.06 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 2c | 1,770$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed Yes | 7c | 1,609$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 10c | 1,488$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 14c | 1,468$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.49 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,358$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed Yes | 8c | 1,219$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 12c | 1,208$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.16 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 9c | 1,145$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…a0efbacked Yes | 11c | 899.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 796.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 9c | 792$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ec…b7a9backed Yes | 14c | 740.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 17c | 520.82$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 9c | 499$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +144%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 8c | 496.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…f8c9backed Yes | 11c | 460.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 10c | 414.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 373.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 14c | 349.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed Yes | 15c | 335$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 8c | 294.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…c08ebacked Yes | 14c | 259.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 216.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 10c | 207.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 18c | 205.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 9c | 203.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 203.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 250 | 30.8%77 W · 173 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 8c | 188.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 79c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 9c | 118.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 20c | 80.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 79c | 64.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 25c | 52.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?this page
- Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?Yes won
- Will Karen Breslin be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?No won
- Will Michael Scanlon be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.