Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc783e5cf132c6b6dc677cb1172958272feb2f51ffcbfa28a69dbc69d72385efa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 12c | 8,817$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.15 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 76c | 8,014$6,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.19 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 74c | 2,333$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.95 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 51c | 1,870$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.18 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 45c | 1,666$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.62 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,594$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.48 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 63c | 1,500$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.99 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…abe1backed No | 30c | 1,348$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.25 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 20c | 1,257$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x580a…a236backed Yes | 54c | 977.18$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 19c | 968.79$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.67 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…eb68backed No | 49c | 906$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed No | 45c | 873.03$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.32 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 61c | 859.04$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.42 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 52c | 846.75$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.79 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed Yes | 20c | 830$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.6 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +14.7wins | +0.30per pick | 19cpaid | +257.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 53c | 797$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.69 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed No | 46c | 699.98$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.99 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5255…6e58backed Yes | 33c | 672.95$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.87 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 64c | 608.23$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.54 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…6158backed No | 44c | 601.98$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 9c | 600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…1047backed Yes | 44c | 599.98$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 62c | 519.87$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.13 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…8a2abacked No | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +563.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +13.5wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed No | 42c | 474.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 72c | 467.45$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.86 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39e…7e03backed No | 42c | 460.14$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +199.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 43c | 426.07$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.34 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 43c | 400$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes | 25c | 396$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed No | 48c | 395.14$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe18…d3a0backed No | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…baf2backed Yes | 50c | 345.75$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.89 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 340.41$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.31 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…2bc6backed No | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 50c | 282.49$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.37 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 9c | 279$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 69c | 270.97$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.68 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ec…2631backed No | 38c | 261.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 16c | 246.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed Yes | 11c | 242.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 221.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 47c | 219.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.39 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154f…9a12backed Yes | 53c | 210$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…c782backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…92afbacked No | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…54d3backed No | 29c | 180$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes | 54c | 159$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 114 | 32.5%37 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 70c | 155.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x720c…662ebacked No | 32c | 145.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9b…5bb9backed Yes | 73c | 141.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…eafebacked No | 30c | 134.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +234.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa06d…5af9backed No | 39c | 128.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 30c | 125$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 42c | 121.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…5d15backed No | 27c | 120$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 61c | 114.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 10c | 112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…3fd0backed No | 39c | 102.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 70c | 100.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x932a…bd8cbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2b…0728backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed No | 76c | 91.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 72c | 91.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b30…ce6bbacked Yes | 52c | 84.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed Yes | 57c | 79.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 28c | 75.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…4258backed Yes | 55c | 73.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked No | 25c | 71.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 45c | 62.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af5…bbf7backed No | 28c | 54.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…bec0backed No | 29c | 54.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b34…6d70backed No | 31c | 53.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab47…be54backed No | 64c | 49.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed Yes | 70c | 48.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 27c | 44.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…9b0dbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 53c | 39.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…2947backed No | 28c | 37.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.