Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Eric Pratt be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe67b1abce5e0cc4e60725795a94f6c1679f9b0570b2f3a4a9297d119dfc3b937
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 56c | 1,075$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.85 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 16c | 257.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 17c | 223.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 219.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 157$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 81 | 6.2%5 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8287…f4a7backed Yes | 40c | 152$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 20c | 149.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 8c | 130.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked No | 59c | 95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 60c | 95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 41c | 79.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 78c | 76.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 47c | 56.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 43c | 55.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…67fabacked Yes | 42c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…0144backed No | 63c | 35.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 62c | 24.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 58c | 19.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.