World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10e559360aec9cb2ef45d9368b304f71a1aad54cdc9ef824f503992a37f8ff01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc78e…4718backed Yes | 8c | 28,852$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.7 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +23%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,992$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 41c | 2,365$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 2,144$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.55 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…4309backed Yes | 8c | 2,079$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 1,562$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.41 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…cd6fbacked Yes | 68c | 1,474$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 11c | 1,419$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.95 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 49c | 1,312$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.41 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…ecf8backed Yes | 54c | 1,156$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 15c | 1,130$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.55 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 900.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 4c | 861.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 59c | 802$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed No | 59c | 793$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed No | 59c | 770$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 40c | 746.17$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.45 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e18…ee85backed Yes | 6c | 572.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…0e0cbacked No | 30c | 525$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +86%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 8c | 459.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae74backed Yes | 5c | 402.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697d…f299backed Yes | 17c | 400.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 34c | 400$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 24cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…e220backed Yes | 8c | 380.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 53c | 357.1$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.67 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked No | 33c | 301.52$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.62 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +11.9wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 289.51$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…1615backed Yes | 6c | 289.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 41c | 260$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 17c | 246.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…becebacked No | 60c | 223.34$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 58c | 219.76$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes | 11c | 213.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Yes | 20c | 209.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 186.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e14…7d0abacked Yes | 16c | 182.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 50c | 177.96$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…1967backed No | 48c | 176.15$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Yes | 35c | 144.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33d7…0ffebacked No | 66c | 139.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…357ebacked Yes | 31c | 132.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…7e9bbacked Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…b364backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…06b1backed No | 67c | 86.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 78c | 85.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 77cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40b8…fb78backed No | 57c | 78.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…3f78backed Yes | 15c | 72.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f16…527ebacked Yes | 35c | 69.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed No | 46c | 68.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…5211backed No | 62c | 64.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed No | 61c | 56.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…ec51backed No | 72c | 41.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…6a4fbacked No | 42c | 40.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb09…6110backed Yes | 64c | 38.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 65c | 37.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 63c | 29.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 71c | 24.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…c709backed Yes | 63c | 19.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 79c | 16.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4c…73eabacked No | 77c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?this page
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.