World Politics · resolved market
Will Maria Wanjera Ghimenton win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f0bb774af1ff3f024c49e500882897920d4a461ef74126d9a88dc331e650aad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 44c | 1,029$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.29 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…f24fbacked Yes | 66c | 678.95$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 49c | 327.71$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.44 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 302.41$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 286.74$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.13 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 252.7$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.46 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 223.69$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed Yes | 45c | 210.34$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.69 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 204$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +12.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +385.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 199.74$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 44c | 199.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 176$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 49c | 99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 47c | 74.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc2…4fc4backed Yes | 47c | 67.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 59c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 55c | 54.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…6151backed Yes | 47c | 52.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 63c | 50.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd70…2168backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 40c | 35.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…b203backed No | 54c | 28.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0085…b322backed Yes | 45c | 24.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8957…54eabacked No | 54c | 24.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…5af9backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e1…03a7backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e63…134fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…e150backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…1498backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad0a…0db2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…c7eabacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…103fbacked Yes | 59c | 16.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Maria Wanjera Ghimenton win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election?this page
- Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.