World Politics · resolved market
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fdab4ce1ca0b9d72568cad4ba906832461367c4df78b5feab08dd8f68a3bf06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 42c | 1,479$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.18 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…f24fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,278$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 45c | 671.21$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.17 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 408.8$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.66 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 377$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.31 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 286.78$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.79 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed No | 59c | 258.02$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 43c | 242.79$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 220$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.45 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 57c | 204$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.28 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 204$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 192.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 58c | 190.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.04 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 45c | 185.21$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 178.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 177$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 165$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…269bbacked Yes | 51c | 157.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed No | 45c | 137.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc2…4fc4backed Yes | 49c | 127.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…82b5backed Yes | 42c | 119$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes | 48c | 108$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes | 55c | 82.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 53c | 72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 71.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf53a…7970backed Yes | 39c | 61.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 54c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 52c | 59.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 45c | 55.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed No | 47c | 54.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 44c | 54.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 45c | 53.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…69a3backed Yes | 44c | 45.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +189.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…bdaebacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…a821backed Yes | 56c | 39.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 59c | 35.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 66c | 33.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9133backed No | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0085…b322backed No | 46c | 24.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…e409backed Yes | 43c | 24.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 51c | 20.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…752abacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…5af9backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e1…03a7backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d2…6480backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca3…4ccdbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5e…ff63backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…2f81backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…189cbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…1498backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2821…399ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…afedbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…c7eabacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 66c | 18.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election?this page
- Will Maria Wanjera Ghimenton win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.